Prolonged west Asia conflict to impact India’s $11.8 billion agri-food exports: GTRI
New Delhi: A prolonged conflict in West Asia could significantly disrupt India’s agricultural and food exports worth about $11.8 billion, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank warned that escalating tensions in the region are already affecting shipping routes, insurance costs, and logistics, posing risks to one of India’s most important export markets.
West Asia accounted for 21.8% of India’s total agricultural and food exports in 2025, making it a critical destination for products such as rice, bananas, spices, meat, dairy products, and processed foods. The region’s geographic proximity and a large Indian diaspora have historically made it a natural market for Indian farm produce.
Among all commodities, rice exports are the most vulnerable, with India shipping about $4.43 billion worth of rice to West Asia in 2025, or nearly 36.7% of its global rice exports. Any prolonged disruption could affect farmers in major producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.
The report also highlighted potential risks to exports of bananas, onions, spices, tea, coffee, seafood, and meat products. Rising freight charges, higher insurance premiums, and uncertainty around key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz could slow down shipments and increase costs for exporters.
GTRI has urged India to diversify its export markets and reduce excessive dependence on the Gulf region to safeguard the agricultural sector. Experts warn that continued instability could eventually impact farmers, exporters, food processors, and transporters linked to the agri-export supply chain.
If the conflict persists, analysts believe it could reshape global agricultural trade flows and create fresh challenges for India’s export-driven farm economy.
